Eibar 1-0 Almeria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 7 Mar 2025

📅07/03/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
39%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.78
Over 2.5
42%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
2.98
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.66
6+ Goals
10%
15.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 33% vs market 26.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.03
1/2
8%
29.0
1/X
8%
12.75
X/1
11%
5.91
X/2
12%
5.57
X/X
10%
4.32
2/1
5%
30.5
2/2
19%
3.68
2/X
10%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
35%
-2.0pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.6pp
39%
Away Win
36%
+2.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.7pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Eibar EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Almeria EU Bookmakers 40%
-3% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -7%
1.22/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.34
-4% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -19%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
279 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 76%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
24.9 Crosses 18.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Eibar
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Almeria
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.82 xG 0.96
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
221 Passes 412
70% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 3
22.09.2024 Almeria Almeria 2-2 HT 0-1 Eibar Eibar İS2
24.01.2022 Almeria Almeria 0-2 HT 0-1 Eibar Eibar İS2
15.10.2021 Eibar Eibar 1-0 HT 1-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
26.04.2015 Almeria Almeria 2-0 HT 1-0 Eibar Eibar İS1
08.12.2014 Eibar Eibar 5-2 HT 3-1 Almeria Almeria İS1
19.03.2006 Eibar Eibar 0-1 HT 0-1 Almeria Almeria İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Eibar
1-0
AWAY Almeria
1.03 xG 0.51
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
259 Passes 306
73% Pass Accuracy 72%
12 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Eibar vs Almeria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Eibar nicked a narrow win over Almeria 1-0.

Our pre-match split (33% / 28% / 39%) promised a tight game; Eibar found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Eibar had 45% of the ball to Almeria's 55%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 1.03 to 0.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Eibar had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Eibar and 1.17 for Almeria.

What was the final score of Eibar vs Almeria?

Eibar 1-0 Almeria in the Spain - 2nd Division on 07/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Eibar vs Almeria?

Before kick-off our model rated an Almeria win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Eibar 33%, draw 28%, Almeria 39%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Almeria) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Almeria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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