St. Pölten 3-1 Kapfenberger SV — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - 1st Division, 7 Mar 2025

📅07/03/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.75
Draw
30%
3.64
Away
28%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.03
Over 2.5
46%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.63
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.04
6+ Goals
10%
10.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.63 — our 31% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.23
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.95
X/1
15%
4.32
X/2
10%
9.07
X/X
16%
5.46
2/1
7%
21.7
2/2
13%
6.92
2/X
5%
15.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
54%
-11.6pp
30%
Draw
24%
+5.2pp
28%
Away Win
22%
+6.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
45%
+8.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
55%
-8.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.4pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pölten EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Kapfenberger SV EU Bookmakers 25%
-5% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +14%
1.54/1.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.10
-10% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
284 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 71%
38.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
13.0 Crosses 15.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pölten
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Kapfenberger SV
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
65% Ball Possession 35%
12 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 3
23.08.2024 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV 2-0 HT 1-0 St. Pölten St. Pölten AU2
08.03.2024 St. Pölten St. Pölten 2-0 HT 0-0 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
20.08.2023 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV 0-3 HT 0-2 St. Pölten St. Pölten AU2
21.05.2023 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV 2-1 HT 1-1 St. Pölten St. Pölten AU2
19.08.2022 St. Pölten St. Pölten 2-0 HT 1-0 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
29.04.2022 St. Pölten St. Pölten 4-1 HT 2-1 Kapfenberger SV Kapfenberger SV AU2
POST-MATCH St. Pölten vs Kapfenberger SV
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Pölten saw off Kapfenberger SV 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had St. Pölten as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Pölten had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for St. Pölten and 0.83 for Kapfenberger SV.

What was the final score of St. Pölten vs Kapfenberger SV?

St. Pölten 3-1 Kapfenberger SV in the Austria - 1st Division on 07/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pölten vs Kapfenberger SV?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Pölten win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split St. Pölten 42%, draw 30%, Kapfenberger SV 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Pölten) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (St. Pölten) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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