Toulouse 1-1 Monaco — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 7 Mar 2025

Toulouse
1-1 HT 0-1
Monaco
📅07/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Toulouse vs Monaco Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.84
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
39%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
2.0
Over Pick
56%
1.77
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.61
No
44%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1
22%
3.64
2-3
39%
1.8
4-5 ✗
27%
3.13
6+
12%
10.65
Value flag · 4-5 at 3.13 — our 27% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.57
1/2
6%
24.3
1/X
6%
12.95
X/1
14%
6.74
X/2
14%
5.17
X/X
14%
4.93
2/1 ✗
9%
30.5
2/2
19%
3.03
2/X
7%
12.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 30.5 — our 9% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Toulouse v Monaco — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toulouse The Market 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Monaco The Market 46%
-10% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +12%
1.32/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.78/1.16
-18% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -9%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
342 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 81%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.5
18.2 Crosses 17.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4

Toulouse vs Monaco Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toulouse
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Monaco
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.44 xG 2.62
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
313 Passes 418
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 34
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.12.2024 Monaco Monaco 2-0 HT 0-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
18.02.2024 Monaco Monaco 1-2 HT 0-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
20.12.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 1-2 HT 1-2 Monaco Monaco FR1
03.06.2023 Monaco Monaco 1-2 HT 0-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
06.11.2022 Toulouse Toulouse 0-2 HT 0-0 Monaco Monaco FR1
04.12.2019 Toulouse Toulouse 1-2 HT 1-1 Monaco Monaco FR1

Toulouse 1-1 Monaco — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toulouse
1-1
AWAY Monaco
0.57 xG 2.43
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
328 Passes 330
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 28
17 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 3
REVIEW Toulouse vs Monaco
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

a 1-1 draw left Toulouse and Monaco with a point apiece. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 39% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, both teams to score (56%) landed while over 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

On the day, possession split 50% to 50% in Toulouse's favour, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 0.57 to 2.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monaco led the recent series with 4 wins. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.00 a game for Toulouse against 1.67 for Monaco.

Toulouse vs Monaco Result & Final Score

Toulouse 1-1 Monaco in the France - Ligue 1 on 07/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Toulouse vs Monaco Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Monaco win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Toulouse 34%, draw 27%, Monaco 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Monaco), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Monaco) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →