Monaco 1-2 Toulouse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 18 Feb 2024

Monaco
1-2 HT 0-1
Toulouse
📅18/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Monaco vs Toulouse Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.61
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.68
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.22
6+ Goals
11%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.68 — our 26% vs market 21.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.01
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
7%
15.4
X/1
16%
3.8
X/2
9%
10.3
X/X
7%
5.48
2/1
7%
22.05
2/2
8%
7.96
2/X
10%
16.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
58%
-5.5pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.1pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+4.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+2.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-2.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.2pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Monaco v Toulouse — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monaco EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Toulouse EU Bookmakers 22%
-4% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.63/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.96
+2% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
411 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 79%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
19.2 Crosses 16.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3

Monaco vs Toulouse Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monaco
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Toulouse
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.12 xG 1.51
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
376 Passes 351
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
32 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.12.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 1-2 HT 1-2 Monaco Monaco FR1
03.06.2023 Monaco Monaco 1-2 HT 0-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
06.11.2022 Toulouse Toulouse 0-2 HT 0-0 Monaco Monaco FR1
04.12.2019 Toulouse Toulouse 1-2 HT 1-1 Monaco Monaco FR1
02.02.2019 Monaco Monaco 2-1 HT 1-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
15.09.2018 Toulouse Toulouse 1-1 HT 0-0 Monaco Monaco FR1

Monaco 1-2 Toulouse — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monaco
1-2
AWAY Toulouse
1.67 xG 1.48
65% Ball Possession 35%
22 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
489 Passes 216
84% Pass Accuracy 70%
39 Box Touches 19
24 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Monaco vs Toulouse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toulouse squeezed past Monaco 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Monaco at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Monaco had 65% of the ball to Toulouse's 35%, shots finished 22-14, expected goals 1.67 to 1.48.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monaco had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Monaco and 1.00 for Toulouse.

What was the final score of Monaco vs Toulouse?

Monaco 1-2 Toulouse in the France - Ligue 1 on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monaco vs Toulouse?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monaco win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Monaco 52%, draw 24%, Toulouse 24%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Monaco), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Monaco) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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