Correcaminos UAT 2-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 7 Mar 2025

📅07/03/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
43%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
15%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
23%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
32%
-3.2pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
43%
Away Win
40%
+3.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.9pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Correcaminos UAT EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 43%
+10% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.70/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.05
+46% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
318 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Correcaminos UAT
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Tepatitlán de Morelos
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
4 Corners 9
21.09.2024 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 6-0 HT 3-0 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT MEK2
07.03.2024 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT 2-0 HT 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
14.09.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-1 HT 1-0 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT MEK2
15.03.2023 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT 2-1 HT 0-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
19.08.2022 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 3-0 HT 1-0 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT MEK2
14.01.2022 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 1-1 HT 0-1 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT MEK2
POST-MATCH Correcaminos UAT vs Tepatitlán de Morelos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Correcaminos UAT edged past Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Tepatitlán de Morelos at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tepatitlán de Morelos led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Correcaminos UAT and 2.17 for Tepatitlán de Morelos.

What was the final score of Correcaminos UAT vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Correcaminos UAT 2-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos in the Mexico - Primera A on 07/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Correcaminos UAT vs Tepatitlán de Morelos?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tepatitlán de Morelos win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Correcaminos UAT 29%, draw 28%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 43%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Tepatitlán de Morelos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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