Real Sociedad II 4-2 CD Castellon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 7 Mar 2026

Real Sociedad II
4-2 HT 2-2
CD Castellon
📅07/03/2026 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Spain - 2nd Division – 2025/2026

Real Sociedad II vs CD Castellon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.5
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
47%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.45
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.23
6+ Goals
10%
11.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.45 — our 29% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.99
1/2
9%
23.1
1/X
9%
14.35
X/1
8%
7.99
X/2
14%
4.49
X/X
12%
5.02
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
24%
2.47
2/X
5%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 52% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
25%
+2.2pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.6pp
47%
Away Win
50%
-2.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.5pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Sociedad II v CD Castellon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Sociedad II EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Castellon EU Bookmakers 54%
+5% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -23%
1.41/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/0.87
+43% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -26%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
265 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 424 · 84%
17.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 39.1
15.1 Crosses 27.8
3.2 Yellow Cards 3.1

Real Sociedad II vs CD Castellon Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Sociedad II
0W-1D-1L
AWAY CD Castellon
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
2.89 xG 2.88
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 9
180 Passes 406
65% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 51
11 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.11.2025 CD Castellon CD Castellon 5-4 HT 1-1 Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II İS2
17.12.2022 CD Castellon CD Castellon 1-1 HT 1-1 Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II İS3

Real Sociedad II 4-2 CD Castellon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Sociedad II
4-2
AWAY CD Castellon
2.92 xG 2.80
33% Ball Possession 67%
17 Total Shots 23
8 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 6
190 Passes 469
69% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 48
10 Crosses 27
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Real Sociedad II vs CD Castellon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Sociedad II saw off CD Castellon 4-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was CD Castellon at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Real Sociedad II had 33% of the ball to CD Castellon's 67%, shots finished 17-23, expected goals 2.92 to 2.80.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, CD Castellon led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Real Sociedad II and 3.00 for CD Castellon.

What was the final score of Real Sociedad II vs CD Castellon?

Real Sociedad II 4-2 CD Castellon in the Spain - 2nd Division on 07/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Sociedad II vs CD Castellon?

Before kick-off our model rated an CD Castellon win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Real Sociedad II 27%, draw 26%, CD Castellon 47%. The final score 4-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (CD Castellon) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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