Osnabrück 2-0 Greuther Fürth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 7 Apr 2024

Osnabrück
2-0 HT 2-0
Greuther Fürth
📅07/04/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Osnabrück vs Greuther Fürth Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.47
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
38%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.87
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.18
6+ Goals
12%
10.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.75
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
26.5
1/X
9%
12.7
X/1
14%
5.82
X/2
15%
5.54
X/X
9%
4.92
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
14%
3.49
2/X
6%
12.65
Value flag · 1/2 at 26.5 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.0pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.6pp
38%
Away Win
37%
+1.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.4pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Osnabrück v Greuther Fürth — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osnabrück EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Greuther Fürth EU Bookmakers 40%
-19% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -16%
1.28/1.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.66
-33% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +1%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
315 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 77%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
17.4 Crosses 17.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8

Osnabrück vs Greuther Fürth Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osnabrück
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Greuther Fürth
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.82 xG 1.56
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
224 Passes 399
71% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 28
15 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.10.2023 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 4-0 HT 1-0 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL2
26.01.2021 Osnabrück Osnabrück 0-1 HT 0-1 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
20.09.2020 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 1-1 HT 1-1 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL2
26.05.2020 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 0-2 HT 0-1 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL2
27.10.2019 Osnabrück Osnabrück 0-0 HT 0-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
04.03.2011 Osnabrück Osnabrück 0-2 HT 0-1 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2

Osnabrück 2-0 Greuther Fürth — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osnabrück
2-0
AWAY Greuther Fürth
1.85 xG 1.01
31% Ball Possession 69%
7 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 8
163 Passes 481
63% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 34
10 Crosses 29
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Osnabrück vs Greuther Fürth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osnabrück saw off Greuther Fürth 2-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 24% / 38%) promised a tight game; Osnabrück found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Osnabrück had 31% of the ball to Greuther Fürth's 69%, shots finished 7-16, expected goals 1.85 to 1.01.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Greuther Fürth led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Osnabrück and 1.33 for Greuther Fürth.

What was the final score of Osnabrück vs Greuther Fürth?

Osnabrück 2-0 Greuther Fürth in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osnabrück vs Greuther Fürth?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osnabrück win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Osnabrück 38%, draw 24%, Greuther Fürth 38%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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