Perth Glory 2-4 Adelaide United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.57
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
37%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.98
Over 2.5
64%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.32
No
39%
3.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
7.71
2-3 Goals
36%
2.27
4-5 Goals
29%
2.41
6+ Goals
17%
4.39
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.76
1/2
7%
20.6
1/X
6%
12.0
X/1
11%
6.97
X/2
8%
5.77
X/X
14%
6.46
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
24.0
2/2
22%
2.9
2/X
5%
11.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.0 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
35%
+3.4pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.8pp
37%
Away Win
42%
-5.3pp
36%
Under 2.5
30%
+6.0pp
64%
Over 2.5
70%
-6.0pp
61%
BTTS Yes
72%
-10.7pp
39%
BTTS No
28%
+10.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Perth Glory EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Adelaide United EU Bookmakers 46%
-2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.65/1.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.91/2.19
+29% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +53% / -43%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
372 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 387 · 81%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.6
22.2 Crosses 20.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Perth Glory
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Adelaide United
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.18 xG 2.28
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 8
349 Passes 377
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 32
21 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.02.2024 Adelaide United Adelaide United 3-3 HT 2-1 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
23.04.2023 Perth Glory Perth Glory 4-4 HT 1-1 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
02.01.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 2-0 HT 1-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
30.10.2022 Adelaide United Adelaide United 2-1 HT 2-1 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
24.04.2022 Adelaide United Adelaide United 2-0 HT 1-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
06.03.2022 Perth Glory Perth Glory 1-2 HT 0-1 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Perth Glory
2-4
AWAY Adelaide United
1.44 xG 2.27
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 10
317 Passes 388
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
24 Box Touches 25
30 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Perth Glory vs Adelaide United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Adelaide United beat Perth Glory 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 2-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 25% / 37%) promised a tight game; Adelaide United found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Perth Glory had 46% of the ball to Adelaide United's 54%, shots finished 12-18, expected goals 1.44 to 2.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Adelaide United led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Perth Glory and 2.50 for Adelaide United.

What was the final score of Perth Glory vs Adelaide United?

Perth Glory 2-4 Adelaide United in the Australia - A-League on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Perth Glory vs Adelaide United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Perth Glory win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Perth Glory 38%, draw 25%, Adelaide United 37%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Perth Glory) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Perth Glory) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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7 Apr 2024
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