Union Saint-Gilloise 2-3 Cercle Brugge — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 7 Apr 2024

Union Saint-Gilloise
2-3 HT 1-2
Cercle Brugge
📅07/04/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Belgium - Pro League – 2023/2024

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.57
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.38
Over 2.5
57%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.94
2-3 Goals
38%
1.95
4-5 Goals
28%
2.78
6+ Goals
11%
7.37
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.97
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.9
X/1
13%
4.06
X/2
8%
10.75
X/X
9%
6.3
2/1
7%
20.3
2/2
9%
7.49
2/X
5%
15.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
59%
-4.1pp
22%
Draw
22%
+0.4pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+3.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
38%
+4.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
62%
-4.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.8pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Union Saint-Gilloise v Cercle Brugge — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Cercle Brugge EU Bookmakers 22%
-7% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -9%
1.86/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.84
-6% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
349 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 75%
30.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
21.1 Crosses 16.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Cercle Brugge
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.27 xG 1.11
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
306 Passes 212
69% Pass Accuracy 59%
24 Box Touches 16
13 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.12.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 HT 2-1 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
24.09.2023 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 0-2 HT 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
18.01.2023 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 1-1 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
09.10.2022 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 HT 1-0 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
18.12.2021 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 3-2 HT 0-2 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge BEL
02.10.2021 Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge 0-3 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL

Union Saint-Gilloise 2-3 Cercle Brugge — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
2-3
AWAY Cercle Brugge
2.47 xG 1.49
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
293 Passes 193
63% Pass Accuracy 58%
34 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Union Saint-Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cercle Brugge edged past Union Saint-Gilloise 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Union Saint-Gilloise at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Union Saint-Gilloise had 59% of the ball to Cercle Brugge's 41%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 2.47 to 1.49 — the balance of chances actually favoured Union Saint-Gilloise.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Union Saint-Gilloise and 0.83 for Cercle Brugge.

What was the final score of Union Saint-Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?

Union Saint-Gilloise 2-3 Cercle Brugge in the Belgium - Pro League on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Saint-Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Union Saint-Gilloise 55%, draw 22%, Cercle Brugge 23%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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