Rijeka 1-0 Hajduk Split — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.67
Over 2.5
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.95
No
58%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
36%
2.71
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.32
6+ Goals
8%
21.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.71 — our 36% vs market 30.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
49%
-7.2pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.1pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+6.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.6pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.2pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rijeka EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 28%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -6%
1.57/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.61/1.40
+16% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / +9%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
335 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 75%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.2
22.7 Crosses 13.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rijeka
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Hajduk Split
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.32 xG 1.07
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
259 Passes 324
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 20
11 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.01.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-2 HT 1-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
07.10.2023 Rijeka Rijeka 1-0 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
30.07.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-0 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
16.04.2023 Rijeka Rijeka 2-0 HT 1-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
05.02.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-2 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
02.10.2022 Rijeka Rijeka 0-1 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rijeka
1-0
AWAY Hajduk Split
0.67 xG 0.08
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Target 0
9 Corners 2
316 Passes 251
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 11
20 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Rijeka vs Hajduk Split
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rijeka edged past Hajduk Split 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Rijeka as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Rijeka had 54% of the ball to Hajduk Split's 46%, shots finished 16-3, expected goals 0.67 to 0.08.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rijeka had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Rijeka and 0.67 for Hajduk Split.

What was the final score of Rijeka vs Hajduk Split?

Rijeka 1-0 Hajduk Split in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rijeka vs Hajduk Split?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rijeka win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Rijeka 42%, draw 28%, Hajduk Split 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rijeka), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rijeka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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