UD Oliveirense 3-1 Benfica II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
43%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
1.91
Over 2.5
58%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.68
No
41%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.41
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
27%
3.48
6+ Goals
12%
13.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.48 — our 27% vs market 23.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
11%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
19%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
35%
-6.3pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
43%
Away Win
39%
+4.4pp
42%
Under 2.5
48%
-6.3pp
58%
Over 2.5
52%
+6.3pp
59%
BTTS Yes
56%
+3.2pp
41%
BTTS No
44%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UD Oliveirense EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica II EU Bookmakers 43%
+1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +30%
1.57/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.44
+25% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +46% / -11%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
288 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.4 Crosses 16.5
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UD Oliveirense
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Benfica II
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.03 xG 1.49
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
280 Passes 336
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 2
25.11.2023 Benfica II Benfica II 1-1 HT 0-1 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
19.03.2023 Benfica II Benfica II 2-0 HT 0-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
08.10.2022 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 2-2 HT 0-0 Benfica II Benfica II POR2
02.05.2021 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 0-2 HT 0-1 Benfica II Benfica II POR2
03.01.2021 Benfica II Benfica II 4-0 HT 1-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
09.02.2020 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 5-0 HT 2-0 Benfica II Benfica II POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UD Oliveirense
3-1
AWAY Benfica II
1.69 xG 2.20
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
219 Passes 320
72% Pass Accuracy 80%
11 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH UD Oliveirense vs Benfica II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UD Oliveirense saw off Benfica II 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Our pre-match lean was Benfica II at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, UD Oliveirense had 43% of the ball to Benfica II's 57%, shots finished 12-18, expected goals 1.69 to 2.20 — the balance of chances actually favoured Benfica II.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica II led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for UD Oliveirense and 1.83 for Benfica II.

What was the final score of UD Oliveirense vs Benfica II?

UD Oliveirense 3-1 Benfica II in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UD Oliveirense vs Benfica II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Benfica II win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split UD Oliveirense 29%, draw 28%, Benfica II 43%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Benfica II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Benfica II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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