Vilaverdense 2-1 Mafra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
37%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.07
2-3 Goals
44%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.82
6+ Goals
10%
16.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
23%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
-0.3pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.2pp
37%
Away Win
39%
-1.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.0pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vilaverdense EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Mafra EU Bookmakers 43%
-38% / -38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +2%
1.97/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.22
-19% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
287 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.9 Crosses 15.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vilaverdense
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Mafra
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.34 xG 3.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
279 Passes 278
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.11.2023 Mafra Mafra 1-0 HT 1-0 Vilaverdense Vilaverdense POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vilaverdense
2-1
AWAY Mafra
1.27 xG 0.82
37% Ball Possession 63%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
225 Passes 443
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vilaverdense vs Mafra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vilaverdense nicked a narrow win over Mafra 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 29% / 37% — and on the day Vilaverdense made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vilaverdense had 37% of the ball to Mafra's 63%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.27 to 0.82.

What was the final score of Vilaverdense vs Mafra?

Vilaverdense 2-1 Mafra in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vilaverdense vs Mafra?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mafra win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Vilaverdense 34%, draw 29%, Mafra 37%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Mafra), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mafra) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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