Moreirense 2-2 Estrela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.59
Over 2.5
42%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.99
No
55%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.44
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
4.89
6+ Goals
9%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.16
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.25
X/1
16%
4.48
X/2
12%
6.4
X/X
14%
3.88
2/1
7%
31.0
2/2
11%
5.2
2/X
7%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
43%
-0.7pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.2pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+1.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
46%
-0.8pp
55%
BTTS No
54%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Moreirense EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
1.36/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/0.84
+1% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +55%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
321 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 75%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
22.1 Crosses 16.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Moreirense
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Estrela
2.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.31 xG 0.85
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
300 Passes 309
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
15 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 3
11.11.2023 Estrela Estrela 0-1 HT 0-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
06.05.2023 Estrela Estrela 2-4 HT 1-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR2
31.12.2022 Moreirense Moreirense 0-0 HT 0-0 Estrela Estrela POR2
27.11.2022 Moreirense Moreirense 4-2 HT 2-1 Estrela Estrela PORLC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Moreirense
2-2
AWAY Estrela
1.08 xG 1.67
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
319 Passes 312
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
12 Box Touches 12
13 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Moreirense vs Estrela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Moreirense and Estrela shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Moreirense at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Moreirense had 49% of the ball to Estrela's 51%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 1.08 to 1.67.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Moreirense had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.25 goals for Moreirense and 1.00 for Estrela.

What was the final score of Moreirense vs Estrela?

Moreirense 2-2 Estrela in the Portugal - Premier League on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Moreirense vs Estrela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Moreirense win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Moreirense 43%, draw 27%, Estrela 30%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Moreirense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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