Porto 1-2 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.42
Draw
27%
4.34
Away
18%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.03
Over 2.5
44%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.99
No
54%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.81
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.22
6+ Goals
8%
11.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.81 — our 28% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.68
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
10%
19.95
X/1
15%
3.44
X/2
5%
15.2
X/X
10%
6.41
2/1
8%
23.15
2/2
7%
12.5
2/X
8%
20.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
67%
-11.5pp
27%
Draw
20%
+7.1pp
18%
Away Win
13%
+4.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
45%
+10.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
55%
-10.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
46%
+0.3pp
54%
BTTS No
54%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 16%
+10% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -8%
2.15/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/2.04
+25% / +58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -51% / +1%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
424 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 74%
30.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.8
20.1 Crosses 13.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.82 xG 1.00
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
425 Passes 200
82% Pass Accuracy 69%
31 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 5
03.04.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-1 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POK
11.11.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-2 HT 1-1 Porto Porto POR
27.05.2023 Porto Porto 3-0 HT 3-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
21.01.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-1 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
10.04.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-1 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
28.11.2021 Porto Porto 2-1 HT 1-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto
1-2
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.17 xG 0.24
71% Ball Possession 29%
15 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
471 Passes 159
84% Pass Accuracy 67%
33 Box Touches 9
28 Crosses 3
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Porto vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes squeezed past Porto 2-1 away from home.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Porto at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Porto had 71% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 29%, shots finished 15-4, expected goals 1.17 to 0.24 — the balance of chances actually favoured Porto.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Porto and 0.33 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Porto vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Porto 1-2 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Porto 55%, draw 27%, Vitoria Guimaraes 18%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Porto) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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