CSKA Moskova 4-1 Fakel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.76
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.62
Over 2.5
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.06
No
62%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.57
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.58
6+ Goals
8%
24.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.4
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.3
X/1
23%
3.86
X/2
8%
8.79
X/X
9%
4.2
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
9%
7.52
2/X
12%
16.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-2.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.6pp
23%
Away Win
21%
+1.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+1.3pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-1.3pp
38%
BTTS Yes
44%
-6.9pp
62%
BTTS No
56%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CSKA Moskova EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Fakel EU Bookmakers 24%
+0% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +12%
1.74/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.30
+25% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
339 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 72%
31.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
19.5 Crosses 14.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CSKA Moskova
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Fakel
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.46 xG 0.90
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
255 Passes 232
68% Pass Accuracy 66%
23 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
05.02.2024 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 1-0 Fakel Fakel HAZ
11.11.2023 Fakel Fakel 1-1 HT 0-1 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
04.10.2023 Fakel Fakel 1-1 HT 0-0 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUK
09.08.2023 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 0-2 HT 0-1 Fakel Fakel RUK
02.04.2023 Fakel Fakel 0-2 HT 0-1 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
06.08.2022 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 4-1 HT 0-1 Fakel Fakel RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CSKA Moskova
4-1
AWAY Fakel
1.77 xG 0.16
50% Ball Possession 50%
23 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 3
265 Passes 288
71% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 11
22 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH CSKA Moskova vs Fakel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CSKA Moskova ran out comfortable winners over Fakel 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had CSKA Moskova as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, CSKA Moskova had 50% of the ball to Fakel's 50%, shots finished 23-6, expected goals 1.77 to 0.16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, CSKA Moskova had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for CSKA Moskova and 0.83 for Fakel.

What was the final score of CSKA Moskova vs Fakel?

CSKA Moskova 4-1 Fakel in the Russia - Premier League on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CSKA Moskova vs Fakel?

Before kick-off our model rated a CSKA Moskova win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split CSKA Moskova 50%, draw 27%, Fakel 23%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CSKA Moskova) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CSKA Moskova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
RUS More Russia - Premier League
7 Apr 2024
16:30 Zenit St. Petersburg vs Baltika Kaliningrad Analysis →
16:30 FC Akhmat Grozny vs Lokomotiv Moscow Analysis →
19:30 Dinamo Moscow vs Spartak Moskova Analysis →