Dinamo Moscow 1-2 Spartak Moskova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 7 Apr 2024

Dinamo Moscow
1-2 HT 1-0
Spartak Moskova
📅07/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2023/2024

Dinamo Moscow vs Spartak Moskova Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.27
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
33%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.15
Over 2.5
52%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.55
No
52%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.2
2-3 Goals
38%
1.86
4-5 Goals
21%
3.02
6+ Goals
12%
9.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.2 — our 29% vs market 18.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.34
1/2
5%
27.0
1/X
6%
12.6
X/1
15%
5.48
X/2
15%
5.99
X/X
11%
5.16
2/1
10%
25.5
2/2
12%
3.79
2/X
7%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
40%
+3.5pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-1.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+5.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-5.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
60%
-12.5pp
52%
BTTS No
40%
+12.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Dinamo Moscow v Spartak Moskova — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Spartak Moskova EU Bookmakers 38%
-4% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -27%
1.42/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.35
-10% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -18%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
270 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 76%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
18.8 Crosses 17.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8

Dinamo Moscow vs Spartak Moskova Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Moscow
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Spartak Moskova
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.95 xG 1.88
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
254 Passes 416
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 37
15 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.10.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 3-0 HT 2-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUK
23.09.2023 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 1-0 HT 1-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
29.08.2023 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 4-1 HT 4-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUK
08.04.2023 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 3-3 HT 2-2 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
20.08.2022 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 1-0 HT 1-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
29.05.2022 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 2-1 HT 1-0 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUK

Dinamo Moscow 1-2 Spartak Moskova — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Moscow
1-2
AWAY Spartak Moskova
1.36 xG 2.01
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 3
253 Passes 366
72% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 11
17 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Dinamo Moscow vs Spartak Moskova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Moskova nicked a narrow win over Dinamo Moscow 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Dinamo Moscow at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Dinamo Moscow had 44% of the ball to Spartak Moskova's 56%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 1.36 to 2.01.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spartak Moskova led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Dinamo Moscow and 1.67 for Spartak Moskova.

What was the final score of Dinamo Moscow vs Spartak Moskova?

Dinamo Moscow 1-2 Spartak Moskova in the Russia - Premier League on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Moscow vs Spartak Moskova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Moscow 44%, draw 24%, Spartak Moskova 33%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Dinamo Moscow), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dinamo Moscow) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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