Abha 2-1 Al Fateh — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League, 7 Apr 2024

Abha
2-1 HT 1-0
Al Fateh
📅07/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League – 2023/2024

Abha vs Al Fateh Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.17
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
47%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.29
Over 2.5
48%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.5
No
51%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.77
2-3 Goals
40%
1.92
4-5 Goals
20%
2.82
6+ Goals
12%
7.76
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.77 — our 28% vs market 16.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
6%
X/2
15%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
28%
-3.5pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.1pp
47%
Away Win
47%
+0.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
40%
+12.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
60%
-12.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
62%
-13.3pp
51%
BTTS No
38%
+13.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Abha v Al Fateh — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Abha EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Fateh EU Bookmakers 50%
+25% / +37% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +13%
1.48/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.16
+16% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +10%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
269 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 82%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
16.6 Crosses 17.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9

Abha vs Al Fateh Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Abha
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Al Fateh
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.98 xG 2.13
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
246 Passes 410
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 31
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
20.10.2023 Al Fateh Al Fateh 4-1 HT 2-0 Abha Abha SUUD
10.03.2023 Abha Abha 2-2 HT 2-0 Al Fateh Al Fateh SUUD
02.10.2022 Al Fateh Al Fateh 3-0 HT 1-0 Abha Abha SUUD
10.03.2022 Al Fateh Al Fateh 3-0 HT 0-0 Abha Abha SUUD
23.10.2021 Abha Abha 3-1 HT 2-1 Al Fateh Al Fateh SUUD
05.03.2021 Abha Abha 2-1 HT 1-0 Al Fateh Al Fateh SUUD

Abha 2-1 Al Fateh — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Abha
2-1
AWAY Al Fateh
0.68 xG 0.43
24% Ball Possession 76%
9 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
116 Passes 531
63% Pass Accuracy 89%
9 Box Touches 23
12 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Abha vs Al Fateh
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Abha squeezed past Al Fateh 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Al Fateh at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Abha had 24% of the ball to Al Fateh's 76%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 0.68 to 0.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Fateh led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Abha and 2.33 for Al Fateh.

What was the final score of Abha vs Al Fateh?

Abha 2-1 Al Fateh in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Abha vs Al Fateh?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Fateh win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Abha 25%, draw 28%, Al Fateh 47%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Al Fateh) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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