Nacional de Football 1-0 Cerro Largo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 7 Apr 2024

📅07/04/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.68
Over 2.5
41%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.09
No
58%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
58%
-8.5pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.5pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+5.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.6pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional de Football EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro Largo EU Bookmakers 21%
-3% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +7%
1.96/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.05
+12% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +34%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
333 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional de Football
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Cerro Largo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 4
27.08.2023 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 2-2 HT 1-1 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
23.07.2023 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 1-0 HT 1-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
11.02.2023 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
26.09.2022 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 1-1 HT 0-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
17.07.2022 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 0-0 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
23.04.2022 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 0-2 HT 0-1 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional de Football
1-0
AWAY Cerro Largo
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
7 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nacional de Football vs Cerro Largo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional de Football squeezed past Cerro Largo 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Nacional de Football as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Nacional de Football had 60% of the ball to Cerro Largo's 40%, shots finished 15-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional de Football had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Nacional de Football and 0.50 for Cerro Largo.

What was the final score of Nacional de Football vs Cerro Largo?

Nacional de Football 1-0 Cerro Largo in the Uruguay - Premier League on 07/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional de Football vs Cerro Largo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional de Football win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Nacional de Football 50%, draw 26%, Cerro Largo 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional de Football), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Nacional de Football) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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