Malmö FF 2-1 Elfsborg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 7 Apr 2025

📅07/04/2025 · 🕒20:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.76
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5 OUR CALL
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.54
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.53
6+ Goals
10%
13.35
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.53 — our 26% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.33
1/2
9%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.8
X/1
12%
4.41
X/2
8%
9.11
X/X
11%
5.06
2/1
9%
23.75
2/2
12%
7.15
2/X
7%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-5.5pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.5pp
29%
Away Win
22%
+6.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.4pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Malmö FF EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Elfsborg EU Bookmakers 25%
+0% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +8%
1.67/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.55
+10% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +12%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
358 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 74%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
21.2 Crosses 18.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Malmö FF
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Elfsborg
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.41 xG 1.73
68% Ball Possession 32%
17 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
527 Passes 146
85% Pass Accuracy 62%
29 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
10.03.2025 Malmö FF Malmö FF 1-0 HT 0-0 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇK
28.05.2024 Malmö FF Malmö FF 2-1 HT 1-1 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ
05.05.2024 Elfsborg Elfsborg 3-1 HT 1-0 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ
12.11.2023 Malmö FF Malmö FF 1-0 HT 0-0 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ
28.05.2023 Elfsborg Elfsborg 3-0 HT 2-0 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ
04.09.2022 Elfsborg Elfsborg 3-2 HT 1-1 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Malmö FF
2-1
AWAY Elfsborg
1.70 xG 1.75
63% Ball Possession 37%
23 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
443 Passes 220
87% Pass Accuracy 77%
36 Box Touches 10
11 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Malmö FF vs Elfsborg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Malmö FF edged past Elfsborg 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Malmö FF as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Malmö FF had 63% of the ball to Elfsborg's 37%, shots finished 23-8, expected goals 1.70 to 1.75.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Malmö FF and 1.67 for Elfsborg.

What was the final score of Malmö FF vs Elfsborg?

Malmö FF 2-1 Elfsborg in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 07/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Malmö FF vs Elfsborg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Malmö FF win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Malmö FF 48%, draw 24%, Elfsborg 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Malmö FF), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Malmö FF) ✓ Over 2.5
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