Elfsborg 3-1 Malmö FF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 5 May 2024

Elfsborg
3-1 HT 1-0
Malmö FF
📅05/05/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Sweden - Allsvenskan – 2024

Elfsborg vs Malmö FF Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.46
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
43%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.89
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.16
6+ Goals
9%
10.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.66
1/2
7%
22.7
1/X
7%
13.8
X/1
12%
7.97
X/2
14%
4.42
X/X
11%
5.16
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.5
2/X
9%
13.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 6% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
26%
+5.6pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.9pp
43%
Away Win
49%
-6.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.8pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Elfsborg v Malmö FF — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Elfsborg EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Malmö FF EU Bookmakers 53%
-3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -15%
0.89/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.05/1.03
-20% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
365 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 77%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.6
20.7 Crosses 22.4
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.9

Elfsborg vs Malmö FF Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Elfsborg
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Malmö FF
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.57 xG 1.57
36% Ball Possession 63%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
202 Passes 447
66% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
12.11.2023 Malmö FF Malmö FF 1-0 HT 0-0 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ
28.05.2023 Elfsborg Elfsborg 3-0 HT 2-0 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ
04.09.2022 Elfsborg Elfsborg 3-2 HT 1-1 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ
11.04.2022 Malmö FF Malmö FF 1-1 HT 1-0 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ
22.09.2021 Elfsborg Elfsborg 0-1 HT 0-0 Malmö FF Malmö FF İSÇ
20.05.2021 Malmö FF Malmö FF 2-1 HT 1-0 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ

Elfsborg 3-1 Malmö FF — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Elfsborg
3-1
AWAY Malmö FF
1.38 xG 0.98
19% Ball Possession 81%
10 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
101 Passes 647
58% Pass Accuracy 88%
18 Box Touches 30
9 Crosses 30
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Elfsborg vs Malmö FF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Elfsborg saw off Malmö FF 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Malmö FF at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Elfsborg had 19% of the ball to Malmö FF's 81%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 1.38 to 0.98.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Malmö FF led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Elfsborg and 1.17 for Malmö FF.

What was the final score of Elfsborg vs Malmö FF?

Elfsborg 3-1 Malmö FF in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Elfsborg vs Malmö FF?

Before kick-off our model rated an Malmö FF win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Elfsborg 31%, draw 26%, Malmö FF 43%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Malmö FF), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Malmö FF) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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