Hammarby 1-2 IFK Varnamo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 5 May 2024

Hammarby
1-2 HT 0-0
IFK Varnamo
📅05/05/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
Sweden - Allsvenskan – 2024

Hammarby vs IFK Varnamo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.53
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
34%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.03
Over 2.5
56%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.85
No
45%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.82
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
3.21
6+ Goals
11%
11.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1.87
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.45
X/1
16%
3.71
X/2
11%
12.25
X/X
11%
5.76
2/1
7%
22.7
2/2 EV+ ✗
15%
9.69
2/X
5%
17.35
Value flag · 2/2 at 9.69 — our 15% vs market 6.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
61%
-17.5pp
23%
Draw
22%
+0.3pp
34%
Away Win
17%
+17.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
45%
-1.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
55%
+1.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
50%
+4.8pp
45%
BTTS No
50%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hammarby v IFK Varnamo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hammarby EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Varnamo EU Bookmakers 20%
+2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +18%
1.98/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.47
+17% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +17%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
421 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 78%
30.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
23.7 Crosses 14.9
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.6

Hammarby vs IFK Varnamo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hammarby
1W-2D-3L
AWAY IFK Varnamo
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.18 xG 1.01
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
475 Passes 347
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
30 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.11.2023 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 0-0 HT 0-0 Hammarby Hammarby İSÇ
29.05.2023 Hammarby Hammarby 0-2 HT 0-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
31.07.2022 Hammarby Hammarby 1-2 HT 0-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
29.05.2022 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 1-0 HT 0-0 Hammarby Hammarby İSÇ
31.08.2014 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 0-2 HT 0-1 Hammarby Hammarby İSÇ2
04.05.2014 Hammarby Hammarby 2-2 HT 1-1 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ2

Hammarby 1-2 IFK Varnamo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hammarby
1-2
AWAY IFK Varnamo
1.16 xG 1.71
72% Ball Possession 28%
17 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 9
9 Corners 6
658 Passes 204
90% Pass Accuracy 72%
17 Box Touches 29
27 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hammarby vs IFK Varnamo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

IFK Varnamo nicked a narrow win over Hammarby 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Hammarby at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Hammarby had 72% of the ball to IFK Varnamo's 28%, shots finished 17-19, expected goals 1.16 to 1.71.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, IFK Varnamo led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Hammarby and 1.17 for IFK Varnamo.

What was the final score of Hammarby vs IFK Varnamo?

Hammarby 1-2 IFK Varnamo in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hammarby vs IFK Varnamo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hammarby win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Hammarby 44%, draw 23%, IFK Varnamo 34%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hammarby) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hammarby) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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