Bologna 1-1 Napoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 7 Apr 2025

Bologna
1-1 HT 0-1
Napoli
📅07/04/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Bologna vs Napoli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.46
Draw
32%
2.88
Away
29%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.54
Over 2.5
48%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes OUR CALL
53%
1.99
No
47%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.31
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
5.03
6+ Goals
10%
30.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.79
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
13.4
X/1
11%
5.35
X/2
6%
6.13
X/X
17%
3.61
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
35.0
2/2
16%
4.69
2/X
10%
13.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 35.0 — our 10% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
BTTS Yes — 53% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+1.9pp
32%
Draw
32%
+0.2pp
29%
Away Win
31%
-2.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
61%
-8.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
39%
+8.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
46%
+6.6pp
47%
BTTS No
54%
-6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bologna v Napoli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bologna EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Napoli EU Bookmakers 34%
+10% / +30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +8%
1.29/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.04
+37% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
337 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 79%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
15.3 Crosses 14.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9

Bologna vs Napoli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bologna
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Napoli
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.08 xG 2.07
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
398 Passes 418
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.08.2024 Napoli Napoli 3-0 HT 1-0 Bologna Bologna İTA
11.05.2024 Napoli Napoli 0-2 HT 0-2 Bologna Bologna İTA
24.09.2023 Bologna Bologna 0-0 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
28.05.2023 Bologna Bologna 2-2 HT 0-1 Napoli Napoli İTA
16.10.2022 Napoli Napoli 3-2 HT 1-1 Bologna Bologna İTA
17.01.2022 Bologna Bologna 0-2 HT 0-1 Napoli Napoli İTA

Bologna 1-1 Napoli — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bologna
1-1
AWAY Napoli
0.80 xG 1.17
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
369 Passes 219
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
31 Box Touches 13
39 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bologna vs Napoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bologna and Napoli couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 32% / 29%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Bologna had 61% of the ball to Napoli's 39%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 0.80 to 1.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Bologna and 1.67 for Napoli.

What was the final score of Bologna vs Napoli?

Bologna 1-1 Napoli in the Italy - Serie A on 07/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bologna vs Napoli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bologna win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Bologna 39%, draw 32%, Napoli 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bologna) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bologna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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