Avai 1-1 Novorizontino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 7 Apr 2025

Avai
1-1 HT 1-1
Novorizontino
📅07/04/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2025

Avai vs Novorizontino Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.33
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.52
Over 2.5
34%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.03
No
64%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
41%
2.23
2-3 Goals
37%
1.75
4-5 Goals
14%
5.02
6+ Goals
8%
31.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.23 — our 41% vs market 36.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
39%
+1.3pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.8pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.6pp
66%
Under 2.5
62%
+4.4pp
34%
Over 2.5
38%
-4.4pp
36%
BTTS Yes
45%
-9.0pp
64%
BTTS No
55%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Avai v Novorizontino — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avai EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Novorizontino EU Bookmakers 34%
+2% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
1.11/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.04
-3% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
321 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 78%
16.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
21.2 Crosses 21.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0

Avai vs Novorizontino Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avai
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Novorizontino
0.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
0.59 xG 1.14
55% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
349 Passes 249
77% Pass Accuracy 72%
15 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.10.2024 Novorizontino Novorizontino 2-0 HT 2-0 Avai Avai BR2
09.07.2024 Avai Avai 0-1 HT 0-1 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
12.09.2023 Avai Avai 1-0 HT 0-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
24.05.2023 Novorizontino Novorizontino 2-0 HT 0-0 Avai Avai BR2

Avai 1-1 Novorizontino — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avai
1-1
AWAY Novorizontino
1.41 xG 0.95
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
336 Passes 313
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 13
15 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Avai vs Novorizontino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avai and Novorizontino shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 32% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (66%) landed while no to both teams scoring (64%) missed.

On the day, Avai had 51% of the ball to Novorizontino's 49%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 1.41 to 0.95.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Novorizontino led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.25 goals for Avai and 1.25 for Novorizontino.

What was the final score of Avai vs Novorizontino?

Avai 1-1 Novorizontino in the Brazil - Serie B on 07/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avai vs Novorizontino?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avai win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Avai 40%, draw 28%, Novorizontino 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Avai), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Avai) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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