Dunkerque 3-1 Guingamp — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 7 Apr 2025

📅07/04/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.57
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
40%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.23
2-3 Goals
36%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.51
6+ Goals
12%
13.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.23 — our 30% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.08
1/2
5%
28.0
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
14%
6.1
X/2
16%
5.66
X/X
12%
4.55
2/1
6%
30.0
2/2
18%
3.63
2/X
8%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
35%
-1.0pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.8pp
40%
Away Win
37%
+2.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.8pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dunkerque EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Guingamp EU Bookmakers 40%
-2% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +13%
1.08/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.21
-14% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
344 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 78%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
18.8 Crosses 17.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dunkerque
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Guingamp
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.18 xG 1.09
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
365 Passes 324
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.01.2025 Guingamp Guingamp 1-1 HT 0-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
13.04.2024 Dunkerque Dunkerque 0-1 HT 0-0 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
12.08.2023 Guingamp Guingamp 0-1 HT 0-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
07.05.2022 Dunkerque Dunkerque 1-3 HT 0-3 Guingamp Guingamp FR2
21.12.2021 Guingamp Guingamp 2-1 HT 0-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
05.02.2021 Guingamp Guingamp 0-0 HT 0-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dunkerque
3-1
AWAY Guingamp
1.96 xG 1.03
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
321 Passes 392
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 17
7 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Dunkerque vs Guingamp
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dunkerque got the better of Guingamp 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 26% / 40% — and on the day Dunkerque made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Dunkerque had 46% of the ball to Guingamp's 54%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 1.96 to 1.03.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guingamp led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Dunkerque and 1.17 for Guingamp.

What was the final score of Dunkerque vs Guingamp?

Dunkerque 3-1 Guingamp in the France - Ligue 2 on 07/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dunkerque vs Guingamp?

Before kick-off our model rated an Guingamp win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Dunkerque 34%, draw 26%, Guingamp 40%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Guingamp) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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