KCB Nairobi 0-1 Gor Mahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 7 Apr 2025

📅07/04/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.46
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
39%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
63%
1.6
Over 2.5
37%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.13
No
50%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
25%
+3.1pp
33%
Draw
29%
+3.2pp
39%
Away Win
45%
-6.3pp
63%
Under 2.5
59%
+4.6pp
37%
Over 2.5
41%
-4.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
43%
+6.8pp
50%
BTTS No
57%
-6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME KCB Nairobi EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Gor Mahia EU Bookmakers 49%
+26% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.54/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/0.83
+65% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -3%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
321 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 0.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME KCB Nairobi
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Gor Mahia
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 3
23.10.2024 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia 0-0 KCB Nairobi KCB Nairobi KEN
16.05.2024 KCB Nairobi KCB Nairobi 0-0 HT 0-0 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia KEN
25.09.2021 Gor Mahia Gor Mahia 2-1 HT 2-1 KCB Nairobi KCB Nairobi KEN2
POST-MATCH KCB Nairobi vs Gor Mahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gor Mahia squeezed past KCB Nairobi 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (29% / 33% / 39%) promised a tight game; Gor Mahia found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (63%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Gor Mahia led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for KCB Nairobi and 0.67 for Gor Mahia.

What was the final score of KCB Nairobi vs Gor Mahia?

KCB Nairobi 0-1 Gor Mahia in the Kenya - Premier League on 07/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for KCB Nairobi vs Gor Mahia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gor Mahia win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split KCB Nairobi 29%, draw 33%, Gor Mahia 39%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gor Mahia), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gor Mahia) ✓ Under 2.5
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