Puszcza Niepolomice 1-1 Rakow Czestochowa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 7 Apr 2025

Puszcza Niepolomice
1-1 HT 0-1
Rakow Czestochowa
📅07/04/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Puszcza Niepolomice vs Rakow Czestochowa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.91
Draw
29%
3.94
Away
50%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.13
No OUR CALL
55%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.97
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.63
6+ Goals
8%
15.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.97 — our 30% vs market 27.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
12.45
1/2
11%
25.5
1/X
6%
21.45
X/1
10%
13.6
X/2
20%
3.74
X/X
14%
5.54
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
18%
1.81
2/X
9%
18.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
BTTS No — 55% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
14%
+7.4pp
29%
Draw
22%
+7.1pp
50%
Away Win
64%
-14.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
43%
+2.0pp
55%
BTTS No
57%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Puszcza Niepolomice v Rakow Czestochowa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa EU Bookmakers 69%
+32% / +32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -18%
1.61/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/0.86
+60% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +62%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
239 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 80%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.8
17.2 Crosses 23.1
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.0

Puszcza Niepolomice vs Rakow Czestochowa Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.89 xG 1.24
37% Ball Possession 63%
7 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
173 Passes 361
65% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 28
10 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.09.2024 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 2-0 HT 2-0 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL
09.03.2024 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 1-1 HT 0-1 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
03.09.2023 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 2-0 HT 2-0 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL

Puszcza Niepolomice 1-1 Rakow Czestochowa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice
1-1
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa
1.58 xG 1.20
46% Ball Possession 54%
19 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
213 Passes 270
65% Pass Accuracy 71%
33 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Puszcza Niepolomice vs Rakow Czestochowa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Puszcza Niepolomice and Rakow Czestochowa couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Rakow Czestochowa at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Puszcza Niepolomice had 46% of the ball to Rakow Czestochowa's 54%, shots finished 19-18, expected goals 1.58 to 1.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Rakow Czestochowa led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Puszcza Niepolomice and 1.67 for Rakow Czestochowa.

What was the final score of Puszcza Niepolomice vs Rakow Czestochowa?

Puszcza Niepolomice 1-1 Rakow Czestochowa in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 07/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puszcza Niepolomice vs Rakow Czestochowa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rakow Czestochowa win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Puszcza Niepolomice 21%, draw 29%, Rakow Czestochowa 50%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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