Puszcza Niepolomice 1-1 Rakow Czestochowa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 9 Mar 2024

📅09/03/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.71
Draw
30%
3.72
Away
49%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.96
No
48%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.15
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.72
6+ Goals
11%
15.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
9.09
1/2
7%
24.45
1/X EV+ ✗
12%
17.6
X/1
11%
10.9
X/2
25%
3.64
X/X
8%
5.13
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
17%
2.02
2/X
10%
16.65
Value flag · 1/X at 17.6 — our 12% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
18%
+3.3pp
30%
Draw
24%
+6.3pp
49%
Away Win
58%
-9.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+5.2pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa EU Bookmakers 62%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -17%
1.06/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/0.75
+30% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / +62%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
207 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 394 · 80%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.4
18.0 Crosses 24.9
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.95 xG 1.42
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
214 Passes 365
69% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 31
14 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 2
03.09.2023 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 2-0 HT 2-0 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puszcza Niepolomice
1-1
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa
1.54 xG 1.02
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 21
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
190 Passes 342
68% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 31
13 Crosses 29
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Puszcza Niepolomice vs Rakow Czestochowa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Puszcza Niepolomice and Rakow Czestochowa couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Rakow Czestochowa at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Puszcza Niepolomice had 40% of the ball to Rakow Czestochowa's 60%, shots finished 10-21, expected goals 1.54 to 1.02.

What was the final score of Puszcza Niepolomice vs Rakow Czestochowa?

Puszcza Niepolomice 1-1 Rakow Czestochowa in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puszcza Niepolomice vs Rakow Czestochowa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rakow Czestochowa win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Puszcza Niepolomice 21%, draw 30%, Rakow Czestochowa 49%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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