Rakow Czestochowa 2-0 Puszcza Niepolomice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.37
Draw
26%
4.34
Away
18%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.86
Over 2.5
43%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.19
No
58%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.28
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.6
6+ Goals
9%
14.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 33% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.66
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
20.8
X/1
21%
3.35
X/2
7%
16.55
X/X
13%
5.8
2/1
5%
26.0
2/2
6%
14.6
2/X
7%
22.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
69%
-13.2pp
26%
Draw
20%
+6.3pp
18%
Away Win
11%
+6.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
50%
+7.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
50%
-7.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
42%
+0.2pp
58%
BTTS No
58%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rakow Czestochowa EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice EU Bookmakers 14%
+2% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +17%
2.00/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.57
+7% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -47% / +92%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
389 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 71%
30.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
19.0 Crosses 15.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rakow Czestochowa
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.22 xG 1.25
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
354 Passes 202
83% Pass Accuracy 68%
31 Box Touches 17
25 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2024 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice 1-1 HT 0-1 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
03.09.2023 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 2-0 HT 2-0 Puszcza Niepolomice Puszcza Niepolomice POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rakow Czestochowa
2-0
AWAY Puszcza Niepolomice
1.28 xG 0.19
70% Ball Possession 30%
14 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 0
377 Passes 116
80% Pass Accuracy 57%
22 Box Touches 10
14 Crosses 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Rakow Czestochowa vs Puszcza Niepolomice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rakow Czestochowa saw off Puszcza Niepolomice 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Rakow Czestochowa as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Rakow Czestochowa had 70% of the ball to Puszcza Niepolomice's 30%, shots finished 14-4, expected goals 1.28 to 0.19.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Rakow Czestochowa had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Rakow Czestochowa and 0.50 for Puszcza Niepolomice.

What was the final score of Rakow Czestochowa vs Puszcza Niepolomice?

Rakow Czestochowa 2-0 Puszcza Niepolomice in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rakow Czestochowa vs Puszcza Niepolomice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rakow Czestochowa win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Rakow Czestochowa 56%, draw 26%, Puszcza Niepolomice 18%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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