Legia Varşova 1-1 Gornik Zabrze — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 28 Sep 2024

Legia Varşova
1-1 HT 1-1
Gornik Zabrze
📅28/09/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Legia Varşova vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.15
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.72
6+ Goals
10%
15.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 33% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.3
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.6
X/1
20%
3.99
X/2
10%
9.0
X/X
12%
4.77
2/1
5%
24.85
2/2
7%
7.15
2/X
9%
15.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
54%
-4.4pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.7pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+3.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.4pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Legia Varşova v Gornik Zabrze — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Gornik Zabrze EU Bookmakers 24%
+10% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +3%
1.83/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.45
+32% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -7%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
361 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 73%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
22.2 Crosses 16.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1

Legia Varşova vs Gornik Zabrze Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Legia Varşova
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.64 xG 1.32
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
353 Passes 305
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.04.2024 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-3 HT 0-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
24.09.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-1 HT 1-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
04.03.2023 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 0-1 HT 0-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
19.08.2022 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-2 HT 0-1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
06.05.2022 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 5-3 HT 4-2 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
21.11.2021 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 3-2 HT 2-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL

Legia Varşova 1-1 Gornik Zabrze — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Legia Varşova
1-1
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
1.08 xG 1.39
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
431 Passes 336
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
29 Box Touches 11
26 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Legia Varşova vs Gornik Zabrze
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Varşova and Gornik Zabrze shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Legia Varşova at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (56%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Legia Varşova had 56% of the ball to Gornik Zabrze's 44%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.08 to 1.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Legia Varşova had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Legia Varşova and 1.67 for Gornik Zabrze.

What was the final score of Legia Varşova vs Gornik Zabrze?

Legia Varşova 1-1 Gornik Zabrze in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Legia Varşova vs Gornik Zabrze?

Before kick-off our model rated a Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Legia Varşova 49%, draw 26%, Gornik Zabrze 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Legia Varşova), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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