FK Tukums 2000 2-1 FS Jelgava — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 7 May 2024

📅07/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.74
Over 2.5
48%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-0.9pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.2pp
31%
Away Win
31%
+0.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
54%
-1.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
46%
+1.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.3pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Tukums 2000 EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY FS Jelgava EU Bookmakers 34%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.49/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.62
-35% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
355 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 77%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
17.6 Crosses 12.3
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Tukums 2000
2W-3D-1L
AWAY FS Jelgava
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.42 xG 1.11
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
273 Passes 232
73% Pass Accuracy 68%
21 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 3
17.03.2024 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-3 HT 1-2 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
11.11.2023 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 0-0 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
26.08.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-0 HT 1-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
10.06.2023 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 2-0 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
29.04.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-2 HT 1-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
20.09.2020 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 0-0 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Tukums 2000
2-1
AWAY FS Jelgava
1.21 xG 2.09
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 21
2 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
297 Passes 203
73% Pass Accuracy 66%
24 Box Touches 42
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FK Tukums 2000 vs FS Jelgava
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Tukums 2000 squeezed past FS Jelgava 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had FK Tukums 2000 as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, FK Tukums 2000 had 56% of the ball to FS Jelgava's 44%, shots finished 16-21, expected goals 1.21 to 2.09 — the balance of chances actually favoured FS Jelgava.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FK Tukums 2000 had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for FK Tukums 2000 and 1.00 for FS Jelgava.

What was the final score of FK Tukums 2000 vs FS Jelgava?

FK Tukums 2000 2-1 FS Jelgava in the Latvia - Virsliga on 07/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Tukums 2000 vs FS Jelgava?

Before kick-off our model rated a FK Tukums 2000 win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split FK Tukums 2000 41%, draw 27%, FS Jelgava 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FK Tukums 2000) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FK Tukums 2000) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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