Grobina 1-3 BFC Daugavpils — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 7 May 2024

📅07/05/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.84
Draw
33%
3.45
Away
32%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.8
Over 2.5
41%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
16%
X/X
19%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
31%
+3.3pp
33%
Draw
25%
+7.7pp
32%
Away Win
43%
-11.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+7.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-7.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.6pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Grobina EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 48%
+55% / +55% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +14%
0.73/2.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/0.85
+126% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / +22%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
316 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 79%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.6
17.0 Crosses 17.6
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Grobina
0W-0D-1L
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2.42 xG 1.09
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
423 Passes 243
78% Pass Accuracy 69%
18 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.03.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 2-0 HT 1-0 Grobina Grobina LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Grobina
1-3
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
0.87 xG 2.61
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 6
284 Passes 217
76% Pass Accuracy 70%
31 Box Touches 31
30 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Grobina vs BFC Daugavpils
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils saw off Grobina 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 33% / 32% — and on the day BFC Daugavpils made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Grobina had 56% of the ball to BFC Daugavpils's 44%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 0.87 to 2.61.

What was the final score of Grobina vs BFC Daugavpils?

Grobina 1-3 BFC Daugavpils in the Latvia - Virsliga on 07/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Grobina vs BFC Daugavpils?

Before kick-off our model rated a Grobina win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Grobina 35%, draw 33%, BFC Daugavpils 32%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Grobina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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