Kampala City 1-0 UPDF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 7 May 2024

📅07/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.45
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
19%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.97
Over 2.5
54%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.95
No
54%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
30%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
65%
-5.9pp
22%
Draw
22%
-0.2pp
19%
Away Win
13%
+6.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
47%
-0.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
53%
+0.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.8pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kampala City EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY UPDF EU Bookmakers 16%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
2.12/0.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/2.23
+4% / +116% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -13%
58% Ball Possession 42%
19 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
401 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kampala City
1W-0D-0L
AWAY UPDF
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
05.04.2022 UPDF UPDF 0-3 HT 0-1 Kampala City Kampala City UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kampala City
1-0
AWAY UPDF
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kampala City vs UPDF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kampala City squeezed past UPDF 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Kampala City as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Kampala City had 53% of the ball to UPDF's 47%, shots finished 11-14.

What was the final score of Kampala City vs UPDF?

Kampala City 1-0 UPDF in the Uganda - Premier League on 07/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kampala City vs UPDF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kampala City win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Kampala City 59%, draw 22%, UPDF 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kampala City), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kampala City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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