North Carolina 1-4 Charlotte — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 7 May 2025

📅07/05/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.99
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
37%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.66
No OUR CALL
54%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.5
2-3 Goals
36%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.19
6+ Goals
10%
11.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.5 — our 31% vs market 22.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
16%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
30%
+7.1pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.9pp
37%
Away Win
44%
-6.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.1pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME North Carolina EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Charlotte EU Bookmakers 48%
-54% / -54% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -63% / -63%
1.89/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/0.93
-30% / -35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +21%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
309 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 80%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
23.0 Crosses 17.0
5.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME North Carolina
1-4
AWAY Charlotte
0.60 xG 2.96
33% Ball Possession 67%
10 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 4
290 Passes 697
77% Pass Accuracy 88%
13 Box Touches 44
13 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH North Carolina vs Charlotte
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Charlotte swept aside North Carolina 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (37% / 26% / 37%) promised a tight game; Charlotte found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, North Carolina had 33% of the ball to Charlotte's 67%, shots finished 10-19, expected goals 0.60 to 2.96.

What was the final score of North Carolina vs Charlotte?

North Carolina 1-4 Charlotte in the USA - Open Cup on 07/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for North Carolina vs Charlotte?

Before kick-off our model rated a North Carolina win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split North Carolina 37%, draw 26%, Charlotte 37%. The final score 1-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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