Osaka 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 7 May 2025

📅07/05/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.64
Over 2.5
44%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
11%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-2.1pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.5pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+2.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
57%
-1.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
43%
+1.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.7pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osaka EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +14%
1.39/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.09
-3% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +17%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
243 · 65% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.6 Crosses 17.0
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osaka
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
51% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.07.2024 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 2-0 HT 2-0 Osaka Osaka JAP3
23.03.2024 Osaka Osaka 0-0 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
03.09.2023 Osaka Osaka 3-1 HT 2-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
03.05.2023 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 HT 0-0 Osaka Osaka JAP3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osaka
1-0
AWAY Matsumoto Yamaga
38% Ball Possession 62%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
142 Passes 293
54% Pass Accuracy 69%
17 Crosses 18
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Osaka vs Matsumoto Yamaga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osaka edged past Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Osaka as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Osaka had 38% of the ball to Matsumoto Yamaga's 62%, shots finished 18-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Matsumoto Yamaga led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Osaka and 1.00 for Matsumoto Yamaga.

What was the final score of Osaka vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Osaka 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga in the Japan - J3 League on 07/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osaka vs Matsumoto Yamaga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Osaka 42%, draw 27%, Matsumoto Yamaga 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Osaka), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Osaka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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