Matsumoto Yamaga 2-0 Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 14 Jul 2024

📅14/07/2024 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.6
Over 2.5
46%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.96
No
51%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
18%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
41%
-1.8pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.2pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+4.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.4pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Osaka EU Bookmakers 34%
-5% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -8%
1.42/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.12
+8% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +15%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
318 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Osaka
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
23.03.2024 Osaka Osaka 0-0 HT 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
03.09.2023 Osaka Osaka 3-1 HT 2-1 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga JAP3
03.05.2023 Matsumoto Yamaga Matsumoto Yamaga 1-0 HT 0-0 Osaka Osaka JAP3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Matsumoto Yamaga
2-0
AWAY Osaka
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Matsumoto Yamaga vs Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matsumoto Yamaga saw off Osaka 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 26% / 35% — and on the day Matsumoto Yamaga made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Matsumoto Yamaga had 51% of the ball to Osaka's 49%, shots finished 17-13.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Matsumoto Yamaga and 1.00 for Osaka.

What was the final score of Matsumoto Yamaga vs Osaka?

Matsumoto Yamaga 2-0 Osaka in the Japan - J3 League on 14/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Matsumoto Yamaga win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Matsumoto Yamaga 39%, draw 26%, Osaka 35%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Matsumoto Yamaga) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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