Molde 3-0 Lilleström — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 7 Jul 2024

Molde
3-0 HT 2-0
Lilleström
📅07/07/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Norway - Eliteserien – 2024

Molde vs Lilleström Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.49
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.38
Over 2.5
61%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.96
2-3 Goals
34%
1.95
4-5 Goals
29%
2.77
6+ Goals
15%
7.33
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.78
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.95
X/1
16%
3.8
X/2
9%
12.7
X/X
6%
6.85
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
20.2
2/2
8%
9.13
2/X
8%
17.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.2 — our 13% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
63%
-5.6pp
20%
Draw
21%
-0.5pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+6.1pp
39%
Under 2.5
38%
+1.1pp
61%
Over 2.5
62%
-1.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.2pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Molde v Lilleström — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Molde EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Lilleström EU Bookmakers 20%
+0% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +9%
2.23/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.97
+27% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -5%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
441 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 76%
34.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
19.9 Crosses 17.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1

Molde vs Lilleström Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Molde
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lilleström
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.57 xG 1.55
52% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 8
388 Passes 335
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.11.2023 Molde Molde 4-0 HT 3-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
23.04.2023 Lilleström Lilleström 2-1 HT 2-1 Molde Molde NOR
16.10.2022 Lilleström Lilleström 0-1 HT 0-0 Molde Molde NOR
18.04.2022 Molde Molde 1-2 HT 0-1 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
05.12.2021 Molde Molde 3-3 HT 0-1 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
18.07.2021 Lilleström Lilleström 1-1 HT 0-1 Molde Molde NOR

Molde 3-0 Lilleström — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Molde
3-0
AWAY Lilleström
1.72 xG 0.75
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
388 Passes 525
82% Pass Accuracy 88%
25 Box Touches 17
11 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Molde vs Lilleström
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Molde cruised past Lilleström 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Molde as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%) came in.

On the day, Molde had 44% of the ball to Lilleström's 56%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 1.72 to 0.75.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Molde and 1.33 for Lilleström.

What was the final score of Molde vs Lilleström?

Molde 3-0 Lilleström in the Norway - Eliteserien on 07/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Molde vs Lilleström?

Before kick-off our model rated a Molde win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Molde 57%, draw 20%, Lilleström 23%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Molde), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Molde) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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