Progreso 3-2 Racing Club Montevideo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 7 Jul 2024

📅07/07/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.84
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
43%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.71
Over 2.5
51%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
8%
X/2
13%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
24%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
32%
-1.9pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.9pp
43%
Away Win
39%
+3.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
55%
-5.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
45%
+5.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.5pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Racing Club Montevideo EU Bookmakers 43%
+8% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
1.49/1.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.74
+32% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -39%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
306 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Racing Club Montevideo
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
10.03.2024 Progreso Progreso 4-3 HT 1-1 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
14.08.2022 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 2-1 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU2
09.10.2019 Progreso Progreso 2-1 HT 2-0 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
3-2
AWAY Racing Club Montevideo
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Progreso vs Racing Club Montevideo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Progreso squeezed past Racing Club Montevideo 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Racing Club Montevideo at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Progreso had 48% of the ball to Racing Club Montevideo's 52%, shots finished 14-18.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Progreso had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Progreso and 2.00 for Racing Club Montevideo.

What was the final score of Progreso vs Racing Club Montevideo?

Progreso 3-2 Racing Club Montevideo in the Uruguay - Premier League on 07/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs Racing Club Montevideo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Racing Club Montevideo win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Progreso 30%, draw 27%, Racing Club Montevideo 43%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Racing Club Montevideo), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Racing Club Montevideo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
URU More Uruguay - Premier League
7 Jul 2024
16:00 Centro Atletico Fenix vs CA River Plate Analysis →