Lexington 2-4 Union Omaha — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 7 Jul 2024

📅07/07/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.75
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
51%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.1
Over 2.5
60%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.66
No
42%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
10%
1/X
12%
X/1
7%
X/2
19%
X/X
6%
2/1
5%
2/2
22%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
23%
+0.6pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.5pp
51%
Away Win
53%
-2.1pp
40%
Under 2.5
44%
-4.0pp
60%
Over 2.5
56%
+4.0pp
58%
BTTS Yes
56%
+1.8pp
42%
BTTS No
44%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lexington EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Omaha EU Bookmakers 57%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.42/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/0.85
-11% / +66% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +10%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
325 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 81%
14.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
11.1 Crosses 16.5
3.7 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lexington
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Union Omaha
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.05 xG 0.93
34% Ball Possession 66%
4 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 2
149 Passes 353
65% Pass Accuracy 78%
7 Box Touches 20
6 Crosses 19
5 Yellow Cards 2
03.08.2023 Union Omaha Union Omaha 2-0 HT 1-0 Lexington Lexington USL1
23.07.2023 Lexington Lexington 3-0 HT 2-0 Union Omaha Union Omaha USL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lexington
2-4
AWAY Union Omaha
0.60 xG 2.20
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 3
289 Passes 397
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 19
6 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lexington vs Union Omaha
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Omaha saw off Lexington 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-4. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Union Omaha as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Lexington had 44% of the ball to Union Omaha's 56%, shots finished 7-10, expected goals 0.60 to 2.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lexington and 1.00 for Union Omaha.

What was the final score of Lexington vs Union Omaha?

Lexington 2-4 Union Omaha in the USA - USL League 1 on 07/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lexington vs Union Omaha?

Before kick-off our model rated an Union Omaha win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Lexington 24%, draw 25%, Union Omaha 51%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Omaha), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Union Omaha) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
USL1 More USA - USL League 1
7 Jul 2024
04:00 Spokane Velocity vs Chattanooga Red Wolves Analysis →
04:00 Northern Colorado vs Charlotte Independence Analysis →