Middlesbrough 1-0 Wrexham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 7 Aug 2026

📅07/08/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.72
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
22%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
3.72
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.13
6+ Goals
12%
10.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.72 — our 25% vs market 21.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.21
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.8
X/1
20%
4.37
X/2
8%
9.43
X/X
9%
5.38
2/1
10%
22.05
2/2
9%
7.23
2/X
5%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
54%
+2.2pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.9pp
22%
Away Win
21%
+0.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.0pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Wrexham EU Bookmakers 24%
-32% / -32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
1.35/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.92
-68% / -69% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +119% / -50%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
477 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 79%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
18.6 Crosses 23.2
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Middlesbrough
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Wrexham
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.45 xG 1.19
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
502 Passes 299
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 25
21 Crosses 22
0 Yellow Cards 5
02.05.2026 Wrexham Wrexham 2-2 HT 2-2 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
25.10.2025 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-1 HT 0-1 Wrexham Wrexham İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Middlesbrough
1-0
AWAY Wrexham
1.59 xG 1.43
13 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
398 Passes 436
28 Box Touches 17
28 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Middlesbrough vs Wrexham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Middlesbrough squeezed past Wrexham 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Middlesbrough as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.59 to 1.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Middlesbrough and 1.50 for Wrexham.

What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Wrexham?

Middlesbrough 1-0 Wrexham in the England - League Cup on 07/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Middlesbrough vs Wrexham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Middlesbrough 57%, draw 22%, Wrexham 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Middlesbrough), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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