Brezilya 1-0 Ekvador — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 7 Sep 2024

Brezilya
1-0 HT 1-0
Ekvador
📅07/09/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
World Cup Qualifiers – 2026

Brezilya vs Ekvador Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.42
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
16%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.8
Over 2.5
42%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.27
No
61%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.08
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.79
6+ Goals
8%
16.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 31% vs market 26.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.7
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
20.9
X/1
18%
3.32
X/2
5%
16.0
X/X
7%
5.57
2/1
9%
27.0
2/2
6%
14.45
2/X
7%
22.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
67%
-5.8pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.2pp
16%
Away Win
12%
+3.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.0pp
39%
BTTS Yes
40%
-1.3pp
61%
BTTS No
60%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brezilya v Ekvador — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brezilya EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Ekvador EU Bookmakers 15%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
2.67/0.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.52/1.31
+59% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +131%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
450 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 78%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.6
13.1 Crosses 9.4
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Brezilya vs Ekvador Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brezilya
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Ekvador
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.64 xG 0.33
64% Ball Possession 36%
13 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
464 Passes 223
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 12
14 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.01.2022 Ekvador Ekvador 1-1 HT 0-1 Brezilya Brezilya DKE
28.06.2021 Brezilya Brezilya 1-1 HT 1-0 Ekvador Ekvador AKU
05.06.2021 Brezilya Brezilya 2-0 HT 0-0 Ekvador Ekvador DKE
01.09.2017 Brezilya Brezilya 2-0 HT 0-0 Ekvador Ekvador DKE
02.09.2016 Ekvador Ekvador 0-3 HT 0-0 Brezilya Brezilya DKE
10.09.2014 Brezilya Brezilya 1-0 HT 1-0 Ekvador Ekvador HAZ

Brezilya 1-0 Ekvador — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brezilya
1-0
AWAY Ekvador
0.46 xG 0.85
57% Ball Possession 43%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
546 Passes 374
89% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 7
9 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Brezilya vs Ekvador
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brezilya squeezed past Ekvador 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Brezilya as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Brezilya had 57% of the ball to Ekvador's 43%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 0.46 to 0.85.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brezilya had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Brezilya and 0.33 for Ekvador.

What was the final score of Brezilya vs Ekvador?

Brezilya 1-0 Ekvador in the World Cup Qualifiers on 07/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brezilya vs Ekvador?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brezilya win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Brezilya 61%, draw 23%, Ekvador 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brezilya), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Brezilya) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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