Guarda 5-4 Estarreja — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 7 Sep 2024

📅07/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.37
Draw
18%
4.49
Away
24%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.1
Over 2.5
52%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.96
No
50%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
7%
2/1
4%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
69%
-11.0pp
18%
Draw
19%
-1.0pp
24%
Away Win
12%
+12.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.7pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guarda EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Estarreja EU Bookmakers 15%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
353 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 241 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guarda
5-4
AWAY Estarreja
56% Ball Possession 44%
27 Total Shots 12
13 Shots on Target 8
11 Corners 10
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Guarda vs Estarreja
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guarda nicked a narrow win over Estarreja 5-4. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Guarda as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 5-4 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Guarda had 56% of the ball to Estarreja's 44%, shots finished 27-12.

What was the final score of Guarda vs Estarreja?

Guarda 5-4 Estarreja in the Portugal - Cup on 07/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guarda vs Estarreja?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guarda win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Guarda 58%, draw 18%, Estarreja 24%. The final score 5-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guarda), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Guarda) ✓ Over 2.5
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