New Mexico United 1-0 Miami FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 7 Sep 2024

📅07/09/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.28
Draw
17%
5.28
Away
16%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.61
Over 2.5
64%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.87
2-3 Goals
37%
2.05
4-5 Goals
30%
2.59
6+ Goals
14%
5.91
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
22%
X/2
4%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
74%
-6.0pp
17%
Draw
16%
+0.8pp
16%
Away Win
11%
+5.3pp
36%
Under 2.5
35%
+1.4pp
64%
Over 2.5
65%
-1.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.2pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Miami FC EU Bookmakers 14%
-1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -13%
1.90/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/2.15
-7% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -5%
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
392 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 74%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.9
14.9 Crosses 12.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New Mexico United
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Miami FC
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.09 xG 0.85
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 5
413 Passes 260
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 15
28 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
19.03.2023 Miami FC Miami FC 0-1 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
07.08.2022 New Mexico United New Mexico United 0-3 HT 0-1 Miami FC Miami FC USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New Mexico United
1-0
AWAY Miami FC
1.67 xG 0.30
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 2
543 Passes 296
89% Pass Accuracy 85%
30 Box Touches 4
14 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH New Mexico United vs Miami FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New Mexico United edged past Miami FC 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had New Mexico United as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, New Mexico United had 63% of the ball to Miami FC's 37%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 1.67 to 0.30 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold New Mexico United's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for New Mexico United and 1.50 for Miami FC.

What was the final score of New Mexico United vs Miami FC?

New Mexico United 1-0 Miami FC in the USL Championship on 07/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs Miami FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 68%, draw 17%, Miami FC 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New Mexico United) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (New Mexico United) ✗ Over 2.5
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