Phoenix Rising 1-0 FC Tulsa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 7 Sep 2024

📅07/09/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.91
Over 2.5
43%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.85
No
57%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.4
2-3 Goals
44%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
3.48
6+ Goals
9%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 29% vs market 23.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
57%
-2.5pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.3pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+2.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
50%
-6.8pp
57%
BTTS No
50%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Tulsa EU Bookmakers 22%
-10% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +28%
1.56/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.69
-5% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +18%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
359 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 74%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
20.0 Crosses 13.2
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Phoenix Rising
4W-2D-0L
AWAY FC Tulsa
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.10 xG 1.16
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
329 Passes 302
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.04.2024 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 3-3 HT 1-2 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
10.09.2023 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 0-0 HT 0-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
28.07.2019 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 0-1 HT 0-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
08.06.2019 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 5-0 HT 3-0 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
17.06.2018 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 3-0 HT 2-0 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
13.05.2018 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 1-5 HT 1-1 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Phoenix Rising
1-0
AWAY FC Tulsa
1.86 xG 0.56
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
482 Passes 262
88% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 4
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Phoenix Rising vs FC Tulsa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Phoenix Rising edged past FC Tulsa 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Phoenix Rising as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Phoenix Rising had 62% of the ball to FC Tulsa's 38%, shots finished 16-6, expected goals 1.86 to 0.56 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Phoenix Rising's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Phoenix Rising had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Phoenix Rising and 0.67 for FC Tulsa.

What was the final score of Phoenix Rising vs FC Tulsa?

Phoenix Rising 1-0 FC Tulsa in the USL Championship on 07/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Phoenix Rising vs FC Tulsa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Phoenix Rising win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Phoenix Rising 55%, draw 23%, FC Tulsa 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Phoenix Rising), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Phoenix Rising) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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