Deportivo Maldonado 2-2 Progreso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 7 Oct 2024

📅07/10/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.27
Draw
25%
2.88
Away
37%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.48
Over 2.5
38%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.09
No
58%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
40%
-1.6pp
24%
Draw
31%
-6.4pp
37%
Away Win
29%
+8.0pp
62%
Under 2.5
64%
-1.4pp
38%
Over 2.5
36%
+1.4pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.2pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Maldonado EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Progreso EU Bookmakers 33%
-8% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / -1%
1.10/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.42
-10% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -17%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
288 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 4.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Maldonado
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Progreso
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
21.07.2024 Progreso Progreso 0-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado URU
31.03.2024 Progreso Progreso 3-1 HT 2-1 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado URU
21.10.2021 Progreso Progreso 2-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado URU
24.06.2021 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 1-1 HT 0-1 Progreso Progreso URU
02.03.2021 Progreso Progreso 1-1 HT 0-1 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado URU
06.09.2020 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 1-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Maldonado
2-2
AWAY Progreso
55% Ball Possession 45%
9 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Maldonado and Progreso couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (38% / 24% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Deportivo Maldonado had 55% of the ball to Progreso's 45%, shots finished 9-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Deportivo Maldonado and 1.17 for Progreso.

What was the final score of Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso?

Deportivo Maldonado 2-2 Progreso in the Uruguay - Premier League on 07/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Maldonado win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Maldonado 38%, draw 24%, Progreso 37%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo Maldonado) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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