Progreso 0-1 Deportivo Maldonado — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 21 Jul 2024

📅21/07/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
13%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.4pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.8pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+1.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
-0.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
+0.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.7pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Maldonado EU Bookmakers 33%
+8% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -12%
1.29/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.58
+6% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -27%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
339 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Deportivo Maldonado
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
31.03.2024 Progreso Progreso 3-1 HT 2-1 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado URU
21.10.2021 Progreso Progreso 2-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado URU
24.06.2021 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 1-1 HT 0-1 Progreso Progreso URU
02.03.2021 Progreso Progreso 1-1 HT 0-1 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado URU
06.09.2020 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 1-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
0-1
AWAY Deportivo Maldonado
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Maldonado edged past Progreso 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Progreso at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Progreso had 50% of the ball to Deportivo Maldonado's 50%, shots finished 8-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Progreso had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Progreso and 0.80 for Deportivo Maldonado.

What was the final score of Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?

Progreso 0-1 Deportivo Maldonado in the Uruguay - Premier League on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?

Before kick-off our model rated a Progreso win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Progreso 42%, draw 27%, Deportivo Maldonado 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Progreso) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Progreso) ✓ Under 2.5
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