Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado Prediction — Model Probabilities
Progreso v Deportivo Maldonado — Team-Based Signals
Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
Progreso 0-1 Deportivo Maldonado — Actual Match Statistics
Deportivo Maldonado found just enough to beat Progreso 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
A gentle 43% lean on Progreso didn't survive contact with the match; margins like that flip all the time.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 52%, coin-flips both.
On the day, possession split 50% to 50% in Progreso's favour, shots finished 8-16.
The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Progreso had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.40 a game for Progreso against 0.80 for Deportivo Maldonado.
Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado Result & Final Score
Progreso 0 - 1 Deportivo Maldonado in the Uruguay - Premier League on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Progreso win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Progreso 43%, draw 29%, Deportivo Maldonado 28%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Progreso), BTTS Yes went the other way.