Progreso 3-1 Deportivo Maldonado — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 31 Mar 2024

📅31/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.82
Over 2.5
51%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.3pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.2pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+2.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
51%
-2.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
49%
+2.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.1pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Maldonado EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -21%
1.22/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.65
+3% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -32%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
291 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Deportivo Maldonado
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 1
21.10.2021 Progreso Progreso 2-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado URU
24.06.2021 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 1-1 HT 0-1 Progreso Progreso URU
02.03.2021 Progreso Progreso 1-1 HT 0-1 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado URU
06.09.2020 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 1-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
3-1
AWAY Deportivo Maldonado
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Progreso saw off Deportivo Maldonado 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Progreso as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Progreso had 52% of the ball to Deportivo Maldonado's 48%, shots finished 18-14.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Progreso and 0.75 for Deportivo Maldonado.

What was the final score of Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?

Progreso 3-1 Deportivo Maldonado in the Uruguay - Premier League on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?

Before kick-off our model rated a Progreso win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Progreso 42%, draw 25%, Deportivo Maldonado 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Progreso), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Progreso) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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