Defensor Sporting 1-0 Danubio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 31 Mar 2024

📅31/03/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.8
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
22%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.67
Over 2.5
47%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.99
No
49%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
13%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
51%
-2.8pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.5pp
22%
Away Win
23%
-0.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
46%
+4.3pp
49%
BTTS No
54%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Defensor Sporting EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Danubio EU Bookmakers 26%
-1% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
1.72/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.03
+20% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +21%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
274 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 419 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Defensor Sporting
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Danubio
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.13 xG 0.44
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
241 Passes 279
71% Pass Accuracy 73%
22 Box Touches 9
12 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 3
14.03.2024 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 1-0 HT 0-0 Danubio Danubio URUK
07.12.2023 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 0-2 HT 0-1 Danubio Danubio URU
15.07.2023 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 2-1 HT 1-0 Danubio Danubio URU
14.05.2023 Danubio Danubio 1-1 HT 1-0 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting URU
09.03.2023 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 0-0 HT 0-0 Danubio Danubio CON CSA
13.10.2022 Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 1-1 HT 1-1 Danubio Danubio URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Defensor Sporting
1-0
AWAY Danubio
60% Ball Possession 40%
8 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Defensor Sporting vs Danubio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Defensor Sporting edged past Danubio 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Defensor Sporting as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Defensor Sporting had 60% of the ball to Danubio's 40%, shots finished 8-17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Defensor Sporting had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Defensor Sporting and 0.83 for Danubio.

What was the final score of Defensor Sporting vs Danubio?

Defensor Sporting 1-0 Danubio in the Uruguay - Premier League on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Defensor Sporting vs Danubio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Defensor Sporting win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Defensor Sporting 48%, draw 30%, Danubio 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Defensor Sporting), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Defensor Sporting) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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