Atletico Goianiense 1-0 Atletico Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 7 Nov 2024

📅07/11/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.62
Over 2.5
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.6
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.53
6+ Goals
9%
24.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.6 — our 34% vs market 32.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.21
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.55
X/1
12%
4.68
X/2
12%
6.38
X/X
11%
3.94
2/1
7%
30.0
2/2
12%
4.96
2/X
7%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-1.1pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.3pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+3.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+1.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-1.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.2pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Goianiense EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 32%
-6% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -10%
1.33/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.12
-31% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -14%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
292 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 80%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
23.0 Crosses 18.6
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Goianiense
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.77 xG 1.54
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
318 Passes 455
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 28
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
30.06.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
05.09.2022 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 0-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
15.05.2022 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
18.10.2021 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 2-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
02.07.2021 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 4-1 HT 3-1 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
18.01.2021 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 3-1 HT 2-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Goianiense
1-0
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
0.96 xG 0.66
37% Ball Possession 63%
13 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
215 Passes 415
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
11 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Goianiense nicked a narrow win over Atletico Mineiro 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Atletico Goianiense as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Atletico Goianiense had 37% of the ball to Atletico Mineiro's 63%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 0.96 to 0.66.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Mineiro led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Atletico Goianiense and 2.17 for Atletico Mineiro.

What was the final score of Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Mineiro?

Atletico Goianiense 1-0 Atletico Mineiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 07/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Goianiense vs Atletico Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Goianiense win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Atletico Goianiense 41%, draw 26%, Atletico Mineiro 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Goianiense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Goianiense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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