Spartak Varna 1-4 Septemvri Sofia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 7 Nov 2025

📅07/11/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.19
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
26%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.82
Over 2.5
50%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.8pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.6pp
26%
Away Win
30%
-4.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
51%
-1.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
49%
+1.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.1pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Varna EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Septemvri Sofia EU Bookmakers 34%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
0.88/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.84
-20% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -43%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
330 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 4.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spartak Varna
4W-0D-1L
AWAY Septemvri Sofia
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.03.2025 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 4-2 HT 2-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
30.09.2024 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia 0-1 HT 0-0 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna BUL1
24.09.2023 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 1-2 HT 1-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BULB
31.05.2023 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 1-0 HT 0-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
24.04.2023 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 2-0 HT 1-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spartak Varna
1-4
AWAY Septemvri Sofia
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 2
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Septemvri Sofia swept aside Spartak Varna 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Spartak Varna at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Spartak Varna had 43% of the ball to Septemvri Sofia's 57%, shots finished 14-15.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Spartak Varna had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Spartak Varna and 0.80 for Septemvri Sofia.

What was the final score of Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?

Spartak Varna 1-4 Septemvri Sofia in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 07/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spartak Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Spartak Varna 44%, draw 29%, Septemvri Sofia 26%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Spartak Varna) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Spartak Varna) ✓ BTTS Yes
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