Spartak Varna 4-2 Septemvri Sofia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.9
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
11%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
49%
-8.9pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.9pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+5.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.1pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Varna EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Septemvri Sofia EU Bookmakers 28%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.15/1.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.55
-7% / -54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -35%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
293 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.6 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spartak Varna
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Septemvri Sofia
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
30.09.2024 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia 0-1 HT 0-0 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna BUL1
24.09.2023 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 1-2 HT 1-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BULB
31.05.2023 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 1-0 HT 0-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
24.04.2023 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna 2-0 HT 1-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spartak Varna
4-2
AWAY Septemvri Sofia
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Varna saw off Septemvri Sofia 4-2. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 30%) promised a tight game; Spartak Varna found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Spartak Varna had 46% of the ball to Septemvri Sofia's 54%, shots finished 14-11.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Spartak Varna had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Spartak Varna and 0.50 for Septemvri Sofia.

What was the final score of Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?

Spartak Varna 4-2 Septemvri Sofia in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spartak Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Spartak Varna 40%, draw 30%, Septemvri Sofia 30%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spartak Varna), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Spartak Varna) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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